EconomySaturday, 4 July 2026·The Hindu - Economy
IMD July 2026 monsoon deficit and El Niño risk: economy, inflation and farm output
IMD’s July 2026 outlook warns of below-normal rain after a 39.8% June deficit, with risks to agriculture, inflation and GDP.
Key highlights
Direct fact
In July 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast rainfall below normal, after June 2026 rainfall stood at 99.5 mm against a long-period average of 165.3 mm, a 39.8% deficit across all four meteorological subdivisions.
Key specifics
- IMD said July 2026 rainfall may remain below normal, meaning less than 94% of the usual monthly rainfall.
- June 2026 rainfall was 99.5 mm versus 165.3 mm LPA, showing a 39.8% fall from normal.
- Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan warned on June 23, 2026 that a potential “super” El Niño could affect Kharif crops.
- RBI’s June bulletin said an adverse south-west monsoon may weigh on the domestic growth-inflation outlook.
- India’s foodgrain output in 2024-25 rose to 357.73 million metric tonnes (MMT), up by 25.43 MMT from the previous year.
Exam lens
Question type: economy and agriculture current affairs, monsoon-impact mapping, inflation linkages. Key facts: IMD, 39.8% June deficit, 357.73 MMT foodgrain output, 3.9% CPI inflation in May 2026, El Niño risk. TNPSC may ask how weak monsoon affects GDP, rural demand and food inflation.